Imagine standing before an ancient redwood, its weathered bark a testament to millennia of silent witness. Now, picture yourself as that tree—rooted, yet ever-reaching skyward, your very existence a bridge between countless yesterdays and innumerable tomorrows. This image encapsulates the central paradox of long-term thinking: How can finite beings, constrained by mortality, truly comprehend and act on timescales that dwarf our own fleeting lives?
I found myself pondering this very question recently, surrounded by towering redwoods in Scotts Valley, California. As founders and investors gathered to discuss the future of technology and business, the juxtaposition was stark—our brief human timelines set against the backdrop of these ancient sentinels. It struck me then that true visionaries, whether in nature or in boardrooms, share a common trait: the ability to see beyond the immediate, to plant seeds for forests they may never walk through.
By expanding our temporal horizons, we don't just make better decisions; we fundamentally alter our relationship with time, mortality, and the legacy we leave behind.
We often talk about "living in the present," but what if this idea isn't quite right? The present is an incredibly thin slice of time, always slipping away. By the time we notice it, it's already past. Our minds are always slightly behind reality, creating the illusion of a present that's really a mix of recent memories and guesses about the immediate future.
Long-term thinking invites us to step back from this illusory present, revealing the broader flows of time that shape our world. It asks us to consider: What if our true "present" isn't just a moment, but the entire span of our potential influence, stretching from the distant past into the far future?
Just as quantum particles exist in multiple states until observed, our decisions exist in a range of potential futures until we act on them. Long-term thinking, then, becomes a way of observing these possibilities, turning them into concrete reality. But here's the interesting part: Unlike quantum particles, our decisions don't just affect the present. They ripple through time, influencing countless future decision points. By embracing long-term thinking, we become conscious shapers of these ripples, influencing the landscape of the future with each choice we make.
Consider the joy of planting a tree whose shade you'll never sit under, or contributing to a scientific endeavor whose fruits you'll never taste. These acts connect us to something larger than ourselves, imbuing our finite existence with a touch of the infinite. In this light, long-term thinking becomes not a sacrifice, but a form of self-transcendence—a way to participate in the eternal while bounded by the temporary.
This perspective isn't limited to grand gestures or monumental projects. It's present in the quiet moments of parenthood, as I watch my children grow and realize that each interaction, each lesson, each shared laugh is a seed planted in the soil of tomorrow. Their potential stretches far beyond my own lifespan, a living embodiment of the long-term thinking that can guide us all.
In the realm of business and innovation, we see this principle at work in the actions of visionaries who build for a future they can only imagine. When Thomas Edison illuminated the world, or when Elon Musk set his sights on Mars, they weren't just creating products or companies. They were shaping the trajectory of human progress. Their work reminds us that true innovation isn't about quick wins or quarterly reports, but about setting in motion changes that will unfold over generations.
Time, like a fractal, repeats its patterns at different scales. The rhythm of a day mirrors the rhythm of a year, which echoes the rhythm of a lifetime. By recognizing these self-similar patterns, we can use long-term thinking as a lens to better understand and navigate shorter timescales.
For instance, the challenges of maintaining a daily exercise habit mirror the challenges of sustaining a decades-long career. By zooming out and applying long-term strategies to short-term problems, we can uncover novel solutions and gain new perspectives on seemingly intractable issues.
If we accept that our actions shape the future, then we must also accept a profound ethical responsibility: We are not just citizens of the present, but stewards of time itself. Our choices ripple outward, touching lives yet unborn and shaping worlds yet unmade.
This perspective reframes ethical decision-making. Instead of asking, "What's best for me now?" or even "What's best for others now?" we must consider: "What's best for the entire timeline of existence that my actions will influence?" This expanded ethical framework has far-reaching implications for how we approach everything from personal relationships to global governance.
Thinking long-term isn't just about the distant future—it's a mindset that can enrich our daily lives. Here's how we can bring this perspective down to earth:
Time traveler's mindset: Picture yourself as a link between past and future. How do your choices today honor those who came before and shape the world for those yet to come?
Future-friendly choices: When making decisions, consider their ripple effects. Could this action create a better tomorrow for someone you'll never meet?
Plant your legacy: Start a project that will outlive you, whether it's writing a book, planting trees, or mentoring others. It's your personal signature on the future.
The power of habits: Small, daily actions are like seeds. What tiny, positive habit could you nurture that might grow into something amazing over time?
Zoom out, zoom in: When tackling a problem, try viewing it from different time scales. How might this challenge look in a year? A decade? A century? Use those perspectives to find creative solutions.
In embracing long-term thinking, we don't abandon the present, we expand it. We recognize that "now" isn't just a fleeting moment—it's a continuous thread of cause and effect, linking the dawn of the universe to its distant future. By aligning our actions with this grander "now," we transcend our finite nature. We become not just temporary actors in a cosmic play, but co-authors of the universe's ongoing story. In doing so, we don't just improve our decision-making or leave a better world for future generations—we fundamentally transform our lived experience of existence itself.
The ancient redwood, in its patient growth, doesn't distinguish between this year and the next century. Perhaps true wisdom lies in learning to see time through its eyes—to feel the slow pulse of epochs, and to act with the calm certainty of a being for whom a millennium is but a season.
Maybe the most profound implication of long-term thinking is this: It allows us, within the brief flicker of our lives, to touch eternity. As I stood among those ancient redwoods, surrounded by minds focused on shaping the future, I felt this truth more keenly than ever. We are all, in our own ways, planting seeds for forests we may never see; in our work, in our relationships, and in the legacy we leave for our children. And in that act of planting, we find a deeper connection to the vast continuum of time that surrounds us.
Artificial Imagination 🏕️
Nestled in a serene forest, this MidJourney creation unveils a magical lakeside retreat, perfect for those who prefer their morning swim to start right at the doorstep. A cozy log cabin perches above tranquil waters, its warm wooden tones contrasting beautifully with the lush evergreens surrounding it. Golden afternoon light bathes the scene, casting an enchanting glow across the landscape and presumably causing nearby real estate agents to salivate uncontrollably. This idyllic haven captures the essence of treehouses—those whimsical dwellings that invite us to ascend into a realm where earth and sky intertwine, offering a unique perspective on the world below and a chance to literally look down on your neighbors (assuming they're fish).
This is not an actual photo, but one that was totally A.I. generated using a prompt that I created with MidJourney 🤯
Vibe Hack 🎧
Ever wish you could download knowledge directly into your brain, Matrix-style? Well, buckle up, because speed listening is the next best thing. Start by cranking your podcasts and audiobooks to 1.5x speed. It'll sound like you've stumbled into a colony of caffeinated chipmunks at first, but trust the process. The secret? Inch up by 0.1 speed increments, and soon you'll be cruising at 2x, transforming hour-long content into 30-minute learning sprints. This hack isn't just about speed—it's mental gymnastics. Your brain flexes its focus muscles, paying closer attention to keep up. For the learning-obsessed (you know who you are), this is your fast track to intellectual feasts. You're not just consuming content; you're sprinting through libraries of knowledge. Just remember, while your brain is racing through information, it's okay to take breaks. After all, even speed listeners need to come up for air occasionally.
My Weekly Vibe
Uber Waymo: I recently hopped into a Waymo autonomous vehicle in San Francisco, and let me tell you, it was mind-blowing! No driver, just you and the future of transportation. The ride was smooth, safe, and surprisingly natural. It felt like having a super-attentive chauffeur who never gets distracted. As someone who's always been fascinated by tech, this experience was like stepping into a sci-fi movie. If you're in SF, Phoenix, or LA, give it a spin. Trust me, it's a glimpse into a world where traffic jams and parking woes might become a thing of the past!
Audio: My buddy Cliff's brainchild, Speechify, is revolutionizing the reading game, and trust me, it's not your average text-to-speech app. Imagine having Morgan Freeman narrate your emails or Snoop Dogg reading you the latest business report—that's the kind of magic we're talking about here! Whether you're a student drowning in textbooks, a busy exec skimming reports on your commute, or just someone who wants to multitask like a pro, Speechify's got your back. It turns any text into audio with AI voices so natural, you might forget you're listening to a machine. Cliff's journey of overcoming dyslexia to create this tool is truly inspiring, and it shows in every feature. Speechify isn't just an app; it's a productivity superpower. Give it a whirl—your ears (and your to-do list) will thank you!
Podcast: Just wrapped the Founders podcast with John Mackey, and I'm still buzzing from the profound insights. While our paths differ, his perspectives and approach to business resonate deeply with my own thinking. Mackey's journey from an idealistic Austin entrepreneur to the visionary behind Whole Foods is a testament to principled leadership. What struck me most was his unwavering commitment to values, even when faced with immense corporate pressures. His insights on balancing strict cost control with a mission-driven approach are invaluable for any business leader. Mackey navigates the complex landscape of capitalism with a conscience, inspiring with his reflections on forgiveness, resilience, and embracing contrasting ideologies. If you're seeking inspiration that goes beyond profit margins and delves into the heart of building a meaningful enterprise, this is your go-to listen. Trust me, John's wisdom will be percolating in your mind long after the episode ends.
Documentary: For years, I've been mesmerized by Cirque du Soleil's jaw-dropping performances. But this documentary is like getting a backstage pass to the most exclusive show on Earth. Watching it, I felt like a kid peeking behind the magician's curtain. The doc peels back the layers, showing the intense training, the personal sacrifices, and the sheer human will that goes into each performance. It's one thing to see these incredible artists defy gravity on stage, but it's another to understand their journey, especially as they navigated through COVID. This inside look adds a whole new dimension to their artistry. Next time I watch a Cirque show, I'll be seeing it through entirely new eyes. If you've ever been wowed by their performances, this documentary is a must-watch!
My first Waymo journey
Weekly Muse
"The trees that are slow to grow bear the best fruit." – Molière
Real Estate
The long-awaited changes from the National Association of Realtors settlement are set to take effect in just a couple of weeks, marking a significant shift in the real estate landscape. Despite some industry voices suggesting minimal impact, early data indicates otherwise. Recent studies show buyer agent commissions have already compressed from an average of 2.62% to 2.55% in just four months, even before the settlement takes full effect.
This transition marks more than a shift in commission structures; it's the beginning of a new era in real estate. Here's my perspective on how the industry will evolve:
Fewer Agents, Higher Quality Service: The future will see a decline in hobbyists, leading to a streamlined field of dedicated professionals. This shift will elevate service quality, with boutique local companies rising to meet the demands of increasingly discerning consumers, while large conglomerates struggle to adapt.
Enhanced Transparency: We're entering an age of radical transparency, where open communication about the entire transaction process will build unprecedented trust and empower consumers like never before. This shift will demystify the buying and selling process, fostering a more informed and confident consumer base.
Tech-Enabled Agents: Agents will harness advanced technology not to replace human interaction, but to enhance it. AI and data analytics will manage routine tasks and data management, allowing agents to focus on high-value, personalized services that only human expertise can provide. This will redefine the agent's role, emphasizing quality over quantity.
Flexible Service Models: Diverse pricing structures, including tiered services and performance-based fees, will emerge, offering consumers greater choice in how they engage with real estate professionals. This flexibility will cater to varying client needs and budgets, democratizing access to professional real estate services.
Enhanced Negotiation Focus: Masterful negotiation skills will become even more critical, both in closing deals and in crafting service agreements that reflect true value. The ability to negotiate effectively will be a key differentiator for top agents in a competitive market.
Empowered Consumers: With technology providing more tools and information, some consumers may choose to represent themselves in straightforward transactions. However, the expertise and value of skilled agents in complex negotiations and personalized services will remain indispensable. This subtle shift will push agents to continuously prove their worth and adapt to evolving consumer expectations.
A New Era for Industry Governance: As these changes take hold, we may witness the beginning of the end for the dominance of traditional bodies like the National Association of Realtors. The longstanding cartel that has shaped the industry for so long will need to adapt or face obsolescence in this new, consumer-empowered landscape.
For agents, this new landscape is both a challenge and an opportunity. Success will hinge on embracing innovation, clearly demonstrating value, and adapting to evolving consumer expectations.
As we navigate this transition, it's crucial for all stakeholders to approach these changes with an open mind and adaptability. While potentially disruptive in the short term, this evolution promises to create a more efficient, transparent, and client-centric real estate market.
We're not just witnessing a change in commission structures; we're at the cusp of a reimagining of real estate services. Those who can anticipate and shape this future will lead the industry into its next phase. The question isn't whether to adapt, but how effectively we can embrace and guide this evolution
In the voice of the late (and irreverent) George Carlin… “Welcome to your $15,750,000 playground of decadence, where luxury kicks modesty in the ass! This 18-acre Chesapeake Bay estate boasts eight bedrooms, a private pier, a heated pool, and enough opulence to make a Saudi prince jealous. It's not just a home; it's a giant middle finger to subtlety—because if you've got it, flaunt it, baby!” (courtesy of TTR Sothebys International Realty *Disclaimer: this is a very lovely listing and clearly just a bit of satire, so loosen up and enjoy *
Interesting Find
The concept of eternity leads to paradoxes, such as the "Hilbert's Hotel" paradox, created by mathematician David Hilbert. Imagine a hotel with an infinite number of rooms, all occupied by guests. Now, if a new guest arrives, you'd think there's no room left, but this is where infinity gets fascinating.
To make room for the new guest, the hotel manager asks the guest in Room 1 to move to Room 2, the guest in Room 2 to move to Room 3, and so on. Each guest moves to the next room number. Because there are infinite rooms, this process frees up Room 1 for the new guest.
Even if an infinite number of new guests arrive, the hotel can still accommodate them. The manager simply asks the current guests to move to rooms with double their current room number (the guest in Room 1 moves to Room 2, the guest in Room 2 moves to Room 4, and so on). This leaves all the odd-numbered rooms free for the infinite new guests.
This paradox shows that infinity doesn't follow the usual rules of numbers. Despite being fully occupied, an infinite hotel can always find room for more guests, revealing the strange and counterintuitive nature of infinity. I've always loved this illustration for its ability to bend our minds and offer a glimpse into the fascinating world of mathematical infinity. And if you find yourself lying awake at night thinking about this stuff, welcome to the club—Hilbert's Hotel might not have any vacancies, but our minds sure do!
This is not an actual photo, but one that was totally A.I. generated using a prompt that I created with MidJourney
Commentaires